Can Leni Robredo Still Overtake Bongbong Marcos in Surveys?

Pulse Asia explains.
Photo/s: Jam Sta Rosa, Agence France-Presse

Bongbong Marcos' rivals still have a fighting chance against him if the difference between their survey ratings narrow down to five points, Pulse Asia said Tuesday, explaining the frontrunner's lead in its most recent poll.

Marcos got a 60% rating, 45 points ahead of Vice President Leni Robredo based on data gathered before Robredo mobilized tens of thousands in campaign rallies that her team said showed how she was gaining momentum.

"Statistically speaking, if they are only five percentage points away from him, they would be statistically tied with him. And that would make it easier to overtake him," Pulse Asia research director Ana Tabunda told ANC in an interview.

Tabunda said that although it's not impossible for Marcos' numbers to decline such that his lead against his closest rival would only be five percentage points, "the probability of that happening is not large."

"Let's say, Bongbong Marcos sheds 20 percentage points, if majority of that goes to, let's say, Leni, that would reduce the gap between them to five percentage points," she said.

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"It's rather difficult especially because we're seeing the same numbers essentially that we saw in January," she added.

Tabunda attributed Marcos' consistent lead in the surveys to his campaign resources and his association to his father's name.

"Obviously he captured the imagination of a good percentage of our voters," she said.

Other candidates, however, should not give up and conclude that the elections are over based on the results of the survey alone, Tabunda said, telling them to "strive harder."

After Marcos and Robredo, next in the preferred list of presidential candidates are Manila Mayor Isko Moreno with 10% voter preference, Sen. Manny Pacquiao with 8% and Sen. Panfilo Lacson with 2%, according to Pulse Asia's February survey.


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