Vice President Leni Robredo needs to gain at least 16 percentage points while her closest rival, Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr., has to lose just as much so she can catch up with him in pre-election surveys with just a month before the May 9 polls, Pulse Asia said Wednesday.
The son of the late dictator maintained his lead in the March 2022 Pulse Asia survey with 56% voter preference, while Robredo surged with 24%, up by 9 percentage points from her February 2022 figure. Marcos' number went down by 4 points.
Pulse Asia research director Ana Tabunda said Robredo needs larger gains while Marcos has to have bigger declines in order for the vice president to catch up.
"The gap between them is 32 percentage points. So if Bongbong Marcos loses 16 points and Leni Robredo gains 16 points, they will be statistically tied," Tabunda told ANC.
"So you need larger than a 16 percentage point decline for Bongbong Marcos and larger than 16 percentage point increase for Leni Robredo," she added.
Tabunda said Robredo's gain in Pulse Asia's latest survey shows that her current campaign efforts are working. The March 17 to 21 survey period coincided with Robredo's March 20 campaign rally in Pasig City, where an estimated 90,000 people attended.
"It's telling the camp of Leni Robredo that some of their efforts are bearing fruit," she said.
While Marcos' decline is "not significant" according to Tabunda, he still has to exert more effort if he wants to maintain a wider lead.
Even though Marcos is keeping his lead with just one month before the May 9 elections, Tabunda said it's too early to say if there is a clear winner.
"We always say we should always look at the survey that is closest to election day itself," she added.
Barry Gutierrez, Robredo's spokesperson, said the gains the vice president received in the latest Pulse Asia survey reflects the groundswell of support they have been receiving recently.
The numbers "clearly establishes what we have long known: that VP Leni has the momentum, which we expect will only further intensify and accelerate all the way to May 9," he said.
Pulse Asia is set to conduct one more survey before the May 9 elections, which Tabunda said they aim to release in late April or early May.