Former President Noynoy Aquino is dead, and it's less than a year before the May 2022 elections. As the nation begins to get over the shock, the question arises: will it affect the vote?
Of course, Aquino unexpectedly rose to power in 2010 after his mother, former President Cory Aquino, died of colon cancer the year before. The 1983 assassination of his father, former Sen. Benigno "Ninoy" Aquino Jr., was one of the catalysts of the 1986 People Power revolt.
In at least two points in Philippine history, the deaths of a member of the Aquino family signaled a change in the political order. Will the son's death have the same effect?
Aquino's passing at 61 could generate a lot of media mileage and sympathy which could benefit someone who is gunning for a high office, said University of the Philippines political science professor Jean Encinas-Franco.
“Yung awa, yung sympathy makes it a very potent context for catapulting someone into the presidency,” she told reportr.
It’s the concept of ‘necropolitics’
Encinas-Franco refers to the public’s tendency to support candidates out of sympathy as “necropolitics,” a concept which has been seen in many instances throughout the history of Philippine politics.
Its most recent manifestation is Vice President Leni Robredo, who rode public sympathy following the 2012 death of her husband, then interior secretary Jesse Robredo. That's not to say that she's unqualified because four years later, she harnessed her grassroots background to win the second highest post in the land.
“There are a lot of people, mostly women, who have been catapulted into office as a result of [someone's] death,” she added.
In the case of Noynoy Aquino’s death, Encinas-Franco expects that people would be talking about his legacy for at least a month after his passing.
“People can't help it but to compare his administration to the present administration,” she said.“And if the Duterte camp has a sense of decency, they will not respond in a way that will sort of disparage the memory of the person who just died."
Will public grief translate to opposition victory in 2022?
It remains to be seen if Aquino’s death would result in a shift of public sentiment towards victory for the Liberal Party in the 2022 elections, Encinas-Franco said.
She said supporters of President Rodrigo Duterte are “extremely loyal,” and it shows in recent pre-election surveys.
The president’s daughter, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte, was the number one preferred presidential candidate in the in a Feb. 22 to March 3 survey of Pulse Asia. Robredo, the Liberal Party’s bet for president in 2022, ranked sixth in the same survey, after former Sen. Bongbong Marcos, Sen. Grace Poe, Manila Mayor Isko Moreno, and Sen. Manny Pacquiao.
Sen. Risa Hontiveros, an ally of the Liberal Party, also could not give a “hard-nosed” assessment yet of how Aquino’s death will impact the upcoming elections. She hoped, however, that Aquino’s leadership would make a lasting influence on the Filipino people.
“The influence of a person like him, the influence of a public service track record like his ay nananatiling mabigat, matimbang, malakas, and sa anumang civil and political experiences na dinadaanan natin bilang mga mamamayan,” she told reporters in a virtual interview on Thursday.
“The best we can do is profit from it, yung ganyang mabuting halimbawa, yung ganyang mabuting impluwensiya,” she added.
Although the impact of his death in the 2022 polls remains uncertain, there is no doubt that the country “lost a decent president who served his country in the best way he could,” Encinas-Franco said.
“I believe he was an honest president. Wala talagang korapsyon that was leveled at him. That's the legacy,” she said.
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