Former Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV pulled off a surprise of sorts when he announced last week that he we would run for president if Vice President Leni Robredo would not take up the challenge as the political opposition’s standard bearer in next year’s pivotal elections.
That he predicated his announcement on a condition was supposedly meant to erase all doubt that Robredo, the opposition’s logical choice for president, remained the top choice.
That ignited suspicions, just the same, that he and his Magdalo group, though officially aligned with the opposition’s new 1Sambayan initiative, were moving in a different direction, his announcement seen as dividing a coalition before it could really come together.
“It’s very clear in my statement that I’m willing to step aside the moment Vice President Leni Robredo definitively decides to run for president. I don’t see how you’ll be able to spin that as dividing the opposition,” he told ANC.
So, what is Trillanes up to?
The former senator acknowledged that Robredo’s seeming reluctance could be construed as “indecisiveness in these trying times,” a conclusion he said he could not make yet and that he was leaving the vice president to make the decision.
But declaring his willingness to run for president at this time can also be seen as more strategic than ambitious for Trillanes, who’s not exactly known for his political polish. The move put the opposition’s search for a presidential candidate high on the public agenda, exerting pressure on Robredo to finally make up her mind.
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The 1Sambayan coalition is set to announce its selection process for its presidential candidate next month, less than a year before the elections, with the singular objective of beating whoever will be endorsed President Rodrigo Duterte and reboot his governance, highlighted by his sustained drug war and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The coalition was launched in March this year, hoping to bring together political forces and groups to put an end to a Duterte-style leadership, one that’s likely to carry on should his daughter, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio, or longtime aide and Sen. Christopher Go, succeed him.
“Remember we’re not only talking of the campaign here. We’re talking about a post-Duterte governance. You would be facing all these kinds of problems and if you are wishy-washy, we can only imagine what kind of governance would happen after,” said Trillanes.
The Problem with 1Sambayan
Duterte himself won’t be the candidate in 2022 and it remains to be seen whether his enduring popularity (at least based on surveys) could translate into votes for his anointed one. Unlike midterm elections, which are logically seen as a referrendum for the incumbent, presidential elections are an entirely different contest.
Like presidents in the past, Duterte is also likely to see his political influence erode toward the end of his term, although his survey-based popularity appears to be still keeping politicians and opportunists in his side of fence.
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But to campaign solely on an anti-Duterte platform may not be wise, said sociologist Walden Bello, a former party-list congressman.
The 2022 campaign, he said, should clearly define the issues and the opposition should provide concrete alternatives and connect with the people, a task which won’t be easy given Duterte’s.
“There is enough dissatisfication with people, especially the younger generation,” he said on the Facts First Podcast, citing, for instance, Duterte’s handling of the pandemic and the territorial and maritime row with China.
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The key, he said, was to find “more and more committed people” to create a bandwagon effect even before the elections, one that could show voters correcting their choice in 2016 and make sure they won’t fall for empty and destructive populism once again.But first they need to find that person who could beat Duterte’s candidate.
Lawyer Howard Calleja, one of the leaders of 1Sambayan, laid down some “non-negotiables” for the coalition’s candidate.
“We’re open to those who love the country and who are democratic and reject the ideals of EJK (extrajudicial killings). We are open to those who would follow the Constitution and defend the territory of the Philippines,” he said on ANC.
Bello warned against the group’s selection process. “It leaves the choice to organization elites to haggle over who gets placed here, who gets placed there, who is the candidate, rather than a process whereby it becomes a process of elimination because you are exposed to the people,” he said.
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